TAMPA, Florida: Coffee markets are drawing comparisons to cocoa's dramatic boom-and-bust cycle, with some industry experts expecting prices to decline sharply in the coming months after recent highs.
The parallels were a key topic at last week's National Coffee Association convention in Tampa, where analysts debated whether coffee could follow cocoa's steep downturn after its 2024 peak.
"I would be shocked if it did not happen," said Carley Garner, senior commodities strategist at DeCarley Trading, a division of Zaner. "I do think coffee is the new cocoa," she said.
Cocoa prices in New York surged to a record above US$12,000 per ton in December 2024 due to supply constraints caused by poor weather in producing regions. But just over a year later, prices fell more than 70 percent as consumers cut back on premium chocolate and manufacturers reduced package sizes or reformulated products with cheaper alternatives.
Coffee has seen a similar run-up. Arabica prices hit a record high in February 2025 after adverse weather affected crops in key producing regions, and remained elevated amid trade disruptions linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. However, expectations of a strong recovery in Brazil's output have pushed prices lower this year.
"I think coffee prices will be at $2 (per pound) by the end of the year," Garner said, adding that high prices are already weighing on demand.
Avere Commodities analyst Digby Beatson-Hird said prices could fall further to $1.80 per pound this year. Coffee futures were trading at nearly $2.93 per pound on Tuesday.
Rising costs have prompted consumers to adjust their habits. A National Coffee Association survey of 1,500 U.S. consumers in January found that 61 percent had taken steps to cut their coffee spending. Some reduced visits to cafes or switched to drinking more at home, while others opted for cheaper brands. Overall consumption, however, has remained steady.
The industry has also adapted. David Behrends, managing partner and head of trading at Sucafina SA, said more expensive mild arabicas, such as Colombian and Central American beans, have lost market share to cheaper robusta varieties.
Coffee demand stalled in 2025, said Carlos Mera, chief coffee analyst at Rabobank, which reported no growth compared with an average annual increase of 2.3 percent before the pandemic. He expects demand to recover by about 2 percent in 2026 as lower prices filter through to consumers.
Still, analysts caution that coffee may not fully mirror cocoa's collapse. Unlike cocoa, global coffee demand has held steady, and supply dynamics differ.
Even with expectations of a record crop in Brazil, prices may not fall as quickly as some predict. Farmers are financially stronger and are likely to sell gradually rather than flood the market, said Cleber Castro, a sales representative for multiple Brazilian farms.
