The collapse of longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last year was felt across the Middle East -- none more so than in Iran, his closest ally.

Assads fall was a major blow to Iran, which had used Syria to expand its regional influence and funnel weapons to armed groups fighting Israel, Tehrans archrival.

One year on from Assads overthrow on December 8, 2024, Iran is still grappling with the consequences of its strategic defeat in Syria. The Islamic republic has attempted to rebuild its influence in Syria, but experts say there is likely no way back for Iran.

With Assads collapse, Iran lost its only advanced base in the Mediterranean Sea and saw the billions it spent on propping up Damascus go up in smoke, said Rami Abdulrahman, director of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

In other words, Iran, after expanding its reach in the region, has returned to its natural borders, Abdulrahman told RFE/RLs Radio Farda.

After Syrias civil war broke out, Iran spent anestimated$30 billion to $50 billion supporting the Assad government from 2011 to 2020.

Tehran also trained, armed, and deployed tens of thousands of Shiite fighters from across the region to defend Assad. Tehran also sent hundreds of its own military personnel to Syria.

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Those commitments underlined Syrias importance to Iran. Under Assad, Syria was a cornerstone of Tehrans axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and partners in the region.

Syria was the only other state that was a member of the alliance, which also includes Lebanons Hezbollah, Tehrans most important and potent proxy. Syria served as the primary supply route to Hezbollah -- acorridor that closedwith Assad's departure.

No Easy Path To Reconciliation

Soon after Assads fall, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameneicalled on Syriansto rise up against the new authorities in comments that were widely seen as an attempt to interfere in Syria.

In March, when sectarian violence flared in western Syria, some accused Tehran of stoking unrest, noting that several Shiite militia leaders involved in the clashes had been trained by Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

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The incident, experts said, underscored Tehrans attempts to use sectarian violence and alleged atrocities committed by forces loyal to Syria's interim president,Ahmed al-Sharaa, to regain its foothold in the country.

Experts say Iran is likely to cultivate local militias and proxy commanders rather than overtly deploying its forces.

Documented reports about the Islamic republic's actions have not been published, but various media have published reports about Tehran's efforts to rebuild forces loyal to it in Syria, said Ata Mohamed-Tabriz, a Spain-based Middle East expert.

We also see that the Islamic republic is trying to cooperate with forces opposed to [Sharaa] or trying to amplify their voices.

There have also beenreportssuggesting that Iran is looking to Russia, which has managed to cultivate ties with Sharaa, to help it establish relations with the new government.

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But Abdulrahman believes there is no way back for Iran.

There is no possibility, neither in terms of government nor in terms of popular base, even among Alawites, for accepting Iran's presence again in Syria. Among Alawites too, Iran is one of the countries most criticized, he said.

Alawites are the sect of Shi'ite Islam to which Assad and many of his supporters belong. Shiite-majority Iran has portrayed itself as a protector of the sect.

Still, Syria's interim president has not entirely shut the door on Tehran, even as Iran is among only two states whose citizens are currently barred from entering the country.

Speaking about ties with Iran, Sharaa told Syrian state television in a recent interview that Tehran left a deep wound on Syrians, in reference to Tehrans support for Assad during the civil war.

But we do not say that the severance of relations between us and Iran will be permanent. If we reach a stage where Syria is respected, there is no interference in its internal affairs, and sectarian tensions are not fueled, relations will be established, he said.

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These dynamics now define the parameters of Syrias emerging foreign policy. Since moving away from Iran, Damascus has seen many international sanctions lifted, including by the United States and Europe, opening doors to foreign investment in the war-ravaged country.

Syrias new government is determined to protect these gains, and restoring ties with Tehran would require fundamental shifts in Iranian foreign policy -- changes that appear unlikely under the current leadership in Tehran, experts said.